Prior probability

Prior odds (Yes/No)

Posterior odds

Posterior probability


0.90 (very strong)

0.9/(10.9) = 9

9x Bayes factor = 3.22

3.22/(1+3.22) = 0.76

0.75 (strong)

0.75/(10.75) = 3

3x Bayes factor = 1.07

1.07/(1+1.07) = 0.52

0.50 (equivocal)

0.50/(10.50)= 1

1x Bayes factor = 0.36

0.36/(1+1.07) = 0.26

0.25 (weak)

0.25/(10.25) = 0.33

0.33x Bayes factor = 0.12

0.12/(1+0.12) = 0.11

0.10 (very weak)

0.10/(10.10) = 0.11

0.11x Bayes factor = 0.04

0.04(1+0.04) = 0.04

 A priori probabilities were converted to a priori odds and multiplied by the minimum Bayes factor*. The obtained a postiori odds were converted to a postiori probabilities. *Bayes factor = e to the power Z
^{2}/2, where Z is the Zscore corresponding to the Pvalue for obtaining an effect of 0.27 mmol/l under the null hypothesis. Pvalue = 0.15, Zscore = 1.43 the minimum Bayes factor = 0.36