|
Prior probability
|
Prior odds (Yes/No)
|
Posterior odds
|
Posterior probability
|
|---|
|
0.90 (very strong)
|
0.9/(1-0.9) = 9
|
9x Bayes factor = 3.22
|
3.22/(1+3.22) = 0.76
|
|
0.75 (strong)
|
0.75/(1-0.75) = 3
|
3x Bayes factor = 1.07
|
1.07/(1+1.07) = 0.52
|
|
0.50 (equivocal)
|
0.50/(1-0.50)= 1
|
1x Bayes factor = 0.36
|
0.36/(1+1.07) = 0.26
|
|
0.25 (weak)
|
0.25/(1-0.25) = 0.33
|
0.33x Bayes factor = 0.12
|
0.12/(1+0.12) = 0.11
|
|
0.10 (very weak)
|
0.10/(1-0.10) = 0.11
|
0.11x Bayes factor = 0.04
|
0.04(1+0.04) = 0.04
|
- A priori probabilities were converted to a priori odds and multiplied by the minimum Bayes factor*. The obtained a postiori odds were converted to a postiori probabilities. *Bayes factor = e to the power -Z
2/2, where Z is the Z-score corresponding to the P-value for obtaining an effect of 0.27 mmol/l under the null hypothesis. P-value = 0.15, Z-score = 1.43 the minimum Bayes factor = 0.36
